People talking to Russian politicians were aware that no one in Russia took Ukrainian independence seriously. Well, not only in Russia - just recall the Chicken Kiev speech.
More recently - a lot of discussion around infantilism of Ukrainians who voted the clown into the office, before they passed the test of fire: just how much of Ukraine can they keep.
Can you take a figure of speech? We could narrow it down to "no one of consequence", and even "the good Russians", including "opposition", including famous intellectuals. "Russian liberals go awry on Ukrainian question" is a statement of fact.
> speech made a failed prediction
No it didn't make any predictions at all. It reflected the state of mind, roughly described as "Ukraine is Russia" or "Ukrainians are Russians".
Discussion of infantilism included the prediction that Russia did not stop its conquest - hence the danger of infantilism.
Is this the president who wrangled the Black Sea fleet, pressed for special status of Sevastopol, caused disturbances in Crimea, and signed Budapest memorandum to disarm Ukraine? (...started a war in Moldova before the ink on the Belovezh accords was dry, kicked off wars in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ichkeria...)
> Is this the president who > wrangled the Black Sea fleet
May be (depending on what you mean under "wrangled"). > pressed for special status of Sevastopol
Yes.
> caused disturbances in Crimea
May be (I do not know).
> and signed Budapest memorandum
Yes.
> to disarm Ukraine?
To take Ukrainian nuclear weapons. Not to completely disarm Ukraine.
Still it is fair to say that Yeltsin took Ukrainian independence seriously, because while Yeltsin was in power in Russia, Ukraine maintained its territorial integrity.
> > speech made a failed prediction > No it didn't make any predictions at all.
If this Chicken Kiev speech did not make any predictions, then why did you mention this speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
If you think you explained - then, please, point me to your explanation of why did you mention Chicken Kiev speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
timeasmymeasure
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-23 07:51 pm (UTC)Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-23 08:57 pm (UTC)Did they give any hint about when will Russia attack the core of Ukraine?
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 08:22 pm (UTC)People talking to Russian politicians were aware that no one in Russia took Ukrainian independence seriously. Well, not only in Russia - just recall the Chicken Kiev speech.
More recently - a lot of discussion around infantilism of Ukrainians who voted the clown into the office, before they passed the test of fire: just how much of Ukraine can they keep.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 09:04 pm (UTC)1) "no one" claim is incorrect.
2) "Taking" or "not taking" seriously - is not a forecast.
> Well, not only in Russia - just recall the Chicken Kiev speech.
Chicken Kiev speech made a prediction that Ukraine will stay as a part of Soviet Union.
Chicken Kiev speech made a failed prediction.
> More recently - a lot of discussion around infantilism of Ukrainians who voted the clown into the office,
"discussion around infantilism" - is not a prediction.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 10:31 pm (UTC)Can you take a figure of speech? We could narrow it down to "no one of consequence", and even "the good Russians", including "opposition", including famous intellectuals. "Russian liberals go awry on Ukrainian question" is a statement of fact.
> speech made a failed prediction
No it didn't make any predictions at all. It reflected the state of mind, roughly described as "Ukraine is Russia" or "Ukrainians are Russians".
Discussion of infantilism included the prediction that Russia did not stop its conquest - hence the danger of infantilism.
Figure of speech
Date: 2022-05-25 02:54 am (UTC)> Can you take a figure of speech?
Yes, usually I take a figure of speech as an indicator of a sloppy reasoning.
> We could narrow it down to "no one of consequence",
Nope.
Boris Yeltsin took Ukrainian independence seriously.
Yeltsin was a consequential figure.
Re: Figure of speech
Date: 2022-05-25 06:44 pm (UTC)Is this the president who wrangled the Black Sea fleet, pressed for special status of Sevastopol, caused disturbances in Crimea, and signed Budapest memorandum to disarm Ukraine? (...started a war in Moldova before the ink on the Belovezh accords was dry, kicked off wars in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ichkeria...)
Did Yeltsin take Ukrainian independence seriously?
Date: 2022-05-25 08:40 pm (UTC)> wrangled the Black Sea fleet
May be (depending on what you mean under "wrangled").
> pressed for special status of Sevastopol
Yes.
> caused disturbances in Crimea
May be (I do not know).
> and signed Budapest memorandum
Yes.
> to disarm Ukraine?
To take Ukrainian nuclear weapons.
Not to completely disarm Ukraine.
Still it is fair to say that Yeltsin took Ukrainian independence seriously, because while Yeltsin was in power in Russia, Ukraine maintained its territorial integrity.
Re: Did Yeltsin take Ukrainian independence seriously?
Date: 2022-05-25 08:54 pm (UTC)Why is it Russian in the first place?
Re: Did Yeltsin take Ukrainian independence seriously?
Date: 2022-05-25 09:36 pm (UTC)Do you mean why did Soviet Union's Black Sea fleet went to Russia?
Forecast of Arestovich vs Chicken Kiev speech
Date: 2022-05-25 02:56 am (UTC)> No it didn't make any predictions at all.
If this Chicken Kiev speech did not make any predictions, then why did you mention this speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
Re: Forecast of Arestovich vs Chicken Kiev speech
Date: 2022-05-25 06:46 pm (UTC)Re: Forecast of Arestovich vs Chicken Kiev speech
Date: 2022-05-25 08:48 pm (UTC)If you think you explained - then, please, point me to your explanation of why did you mention Chicken Kiev speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-25 02:42 am (UTC)Chicken Kiev speech, оказывается, Кондолиза писала. Fucking bitch.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 03:21 am (UTC)