What do you want? Even in questions about the war he is useful only as far as the dissemination of information is concerned. Everything else - including his prognoses - is bollocks.
Arestovich predicted that Russia will attack the core of Ukraine -- years ahead of actual events (2022-02-24). Only few analysts claimed something like that will happen. Nobody gave anything close to the level of details Arestovich did.
People talking to Russian politicians were aware that no one in Russia took Ukrainian independence seriously. Well, not only in Russia - just recall the Chicken Kiev speech.
More recently - a lot of discussion around infantilism of Ukrainians who voted the clown into the office, before they passed the test of fire: just how much of Ukraine can they keep.
Can you take a figure of speech? We could narrow it down to "no one of consequence", and even "the good Russians", including "opposition", including famous intellectuals. "Russian liberals go awry on Ukrainian question" is a statement of fact.
> speech made a failed prediction
No it didn't make any predictions at all. It reflected the state of mind, roughly described as "Ukraine is Russia" or "Ukrainians are Russians".
Discussion of infantilism included the prediction that Russia did not stop its conquest - hence the danger of infantilism.
Is this the president who wrangled the Black Sea fleet, pressed for special status of Sevastopol, caused disturbances in Crimea, and signed Budapest memorandum to disarm Ukraine? (...started a war in Moldova before the ink on the Belovezh accords was dry, kicked off wars in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ichkeria...)
> Is this the president who > wrangled the Black Sea fleet
May be (depending on what you mean under "wrangled"). > pressed for special status of Sevastopol
Yes.
> caused disturbances in Crimea
May be (I do not know).
> and signed Budapest memorandum
Yes.
> to disarm Ukraine?
To take Ukrainian nuclear weapons. Not to completely disarm Ukraine.
Still it is fair to say that Yeltsin took Ukrainian independence seriously, because while Yeltsin was in power in Russia, Ukraine maintained its territorial integrity.
> > speech made a failed prediction > No it didn't make any predictions at all.
If this Chicken Kiev speech did not make any predictions, then why did you mention this speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
If you think you explained - then, please, point me to your explanation of why did you mention Chicken Kiev speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
В 2014, и после этого уже было вполне понятно (увы, далеко не всем, как выяснилось в 2019), что это только начало и очередное нападение - лишь вопрос времени.
> Аннексия 3 областей - это, видимо, такая форма добрососедских отношений.
Нет, конечно.
Вы путаете гибридную войну (2014-2022) и полномасштабную войну (2022-...)
> А какой смысл был в этих попытках вообще?
Смысл, например, в том, что для Путина, "собирание земель русских" - самая любимая игра.
Если вы до сих пор не разобрались зачем Путину в 2014м было откладывать попытку полностью захватить Украину -- на потом -- то ваше утверждение "после этого уже было вполне понятно" - неправда.
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Date: 2022-05-22 09:47 pm (UTC)Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-23 06:46 am (UTC)Arestovich predicted that Russia will attack the core of Ukraine -- years ahead of actual events (2022-02-24).
Only few analysts claimed something like that will happen.
Nobody gave anything close to the level of details Arestovich did.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-23 07:51 pm (UTC)Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-23 08:57 pm (UTC)Did they give any hint about when will Russia attack the core of Ukraine?
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 08:22 pm (UTC)People talking to Russian politicians were aware that no one in Russia took Ukrainian independence seriously. Well, not only in Russia - just recall the Chicken Kiev speech.
More recently - a lot of discussion around infantilism of Ukrainians who voted the clown into the office, before they passed the test of fire: just how much of Ukraine can they keep.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 09:04 pm (UTC)1) "no one" claim is incorrect.
2) "Taking" or "not taking" seriously - is not a forecast.
> Well, not only in Russia - just recall the Chicken Kiev speech.
Chicken Kiev speech made a prediction that Ukraine will stay as a part of Soviet Union.
Chicken Kiev speech made a failed prediction.
> More recently - a lot of discussion around infantilism of Ukrainians who voted the clown into the office,
"discussion around infantilism" - is not a prediction.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 10:31 pm (UTC)Can you take a figure of speech? We could narrow it down to "no one of consequence", and even "the good Russians", including "opposition", including famous intellectuals. "Russian liberals go awry on Ukrainian question" is a statement of fact.
> speech made a failed prediction
No it didn't make any predictions at all. It reflected the state of mind, roughly described as "Ukraine is Russia" or "Ukrainians are Russians".
Discussion of infantilism included the prediction that Russia did not stop its conquest - hence the danger of infantilism.
Figure of speech
Date: 2022-05-25 02:54 am (UTC)> Can you take a figure of speech?
Yes, usually I take a figure of speech as an indicator of a sloppy reasoning.
> We could narrow it down to "no one of consequence",
Nope.
Boris Yeltsin took Ukrainian independence seriously.
Yeltsin was a consequential figure.
Re: Figure of speech
Date: 2022-05-25 06:44 pm (UTC)Is this the president who wrangled the Black Sea fleet, pressed for special status of Sevastopol, caused disturbances in Crimea, and signed Budapest memorandum to disarm Ukraine? (...started a war in Moldova before the ink on the Belovezh accords was dry, kicked off wars in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ichkeria...)
Did Yeltsin take Ukrainian independence seriously?
Date: 2022-05-25 08:40 pm (UTC)> wrangled the Black Sea fleet
May be (depending on what you mean under "wrangled").
> pressed for special status of Sevastopol
Yes.
> caused disturbances in Crimea
May be (I do not know).
> and signed Budapest memorandum
Yes.
> to disarm Ukraine?
To take Ukrainian nuclear weapons.
Not to completely disarm Ukraine.
Still it is fair to say that Yeltsin took Ukrainian independence seriously, because while Yeltsin was in power in Russia, Ukraine maintained its territorial integrity.
Re: Did Yeltsin take Ukrainian independence seriously?
Date: 2022-05-25 08:54 pm (UTC)Why is it Russian in the first place?
Re: Did Yeltsin take Ukrainian independence seriously?
Date: 2022-05-25 09:36 pm (UTC)Do you mean why did Soviet Union's Black Sea fleet went to Russia?
Forecast of Arestovich vs Chicken Kiev speech
Date: 2022-05-25 02:56 am (UTC)> No it didn't make any predictions at all.
If this Chicken Kiev speech did not make any predictions, then why did you mention this speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
Re: Forecast of Arestovich vs Chicken Kiev speech
Date: 2022-05-25 06:46 pm (UTC)Re: Forecast of Arestovich vs Chicken Kiev speech
Date: 2022-05-25 08:48 pm (UTC)If you think you explained - then, please, point me to your explanation of why did you mention Chicken Kiev speech in the context of alternatives to the forecast of Arestovich?
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-25 02:42 am (UTC)Chicken Kiev speech, оказывается, Кондолиза писала. Fucking bitch.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 03:21 am (UTC)Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 04:52 pm (UTC)Знаете, я вот прямо сейчас могу предсказать, что примерно через полгода в Украине пойдет снег, и он таки пойдет.
Такие заявления тоже мало кто делает, но совсем не потому, что для этого требуются уникальные аналитические способности.
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 09:20 pm (UTC)Когда в последний раз (до февраля 2022) Россия развязывала полномасштабную войну против Украины?
Арестович же предсказал не только что Россия нападет на Украину, но и примерно когда это случится (с точностью порядка трех лет).
Re: Forecast of Arestovich
Date: 2022-05-24 10:17 pm (UTC)В 2014, и после этого уже было вполне понятно (увы, далеко не всем, как выяснилось в 2019), что это только начало и очередное нападение - лишь вопрос времени.
"Вполне понятно"
Date: 2022-05-24 11:14 pm (UTC)В 2014 война не была полномасштабной.
Путин даже врал, что это "силы местной самообороны" воюют в Украине.
> и после этого уже было вполне понятно ... что это только начало и очередное нападение - лишь вопрос времени.
Если вам это было понятно, то объясните, какой смысл Путину в 2014м было откладывать попытку полностью захватить Украину -- на потом?
Re: "Вполне понятно"
Date: 2022-05-25 01:21 pm (UTC)Аннексия 3 областей - это, видимо, такая форма добрососедских отношений. Ну ок.
А какой смысл был в этих попытках вообще?
Я не психиатр, профессионально о мотивации помешанных судить не могу.
Re: "Вполне понятно"
Date: 2022-05-25 09:49 pm (UTC)Нет, конечно.
Вы путаете гибридную войну (2014-2022) и полномасштабную войну (2022-...)
> А какой смысл был в этих попытках вообще?
Смысл, например, в том, что для Путина, "собирание земель русских" - самая любимая игра.
Если вы до сих пор не разобрались зачем Путину в 2014м было откладывать попытку полностью захватить Украину -- на потом -- то ваше утверждение "после этого уже было вполне понятно" - неправда.